Insights
Capital Markets & Macro Review
Six fiscal years of India's economy, interest rates, credit and markets, from the pandemic shock of FY2020-21 to the record-low inflation of FY2025-26. Each review ends with the practical lessons for running a business or managing private finances.
FY2020-21Annual review
The Shock and the Snap-Back
A pandemic contraction, the lowest policy rate in two decades and a record equity rebound. The year proved that liquidity, not profitability, decides who survives a shock.
FY2021-22Annual review
Reopening, Recovery and the Return of Inflation
Growth rebounded strongly, rates stayed at record lows, and input-cost inflation returned. Pricing power and working-capital discipline became the year's deciding factors.
FY2022-23Annual review
The Tightening Year
The RBI raised the repo rate by 250 basis points in nine months as inflation stayed above target. Borrowing costs reset quickly, and the rupee crossed 80 to the dollar.
FY2023-24Annual review
Strong Growth, Patient Policy
Growth surprised on the upside while the RBI held rates steady all year. Stable conditions made it a year for strengthening balance sheets and financial reporting.
FY2024-25Annual review
A Soft Patch and the Turn in the Rate Cycle
A general election, a mid-year growth slowdown, record foreign selling in equities and the first repo rate cut in almost five years.
FY2025-26Annual review
Lowest Inflation, Easiest Policy, Toughest Markets
Growth of 7.7%, record-low inflation and 100 basis points of rate cuts, yet equities fell, bond yields rose and the rupee had its steepest decline in 14 years.
Six years in one table
| Fiscal year | Real GDP | CPI avg | Repo, end | 10-yr yield, end | Nifty 50, year | USD/INR, end | Fiscal deficit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020-21 | −7.3% | 6.2% | 4.00% | ≈6.17% | +70.9% | ≈73.50 | 9.2% |
| FY2021-22 | 8.7% | 5.5% | 4.00% | ≈6.84% | +18.9% | ≈75.81 | 6.7% |
| FY2022-23 | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.50% | ≈7.31% | −0.6% | ≈82.17 | 6.4% |
| FY2023-24 | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.50% | ≈7.05% | +28.6% | ≈83.37 | 5.6% |
| FY2024-25 | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.25% | ≈6.58% | +5.3% | ≈85.48 | 4.8% |
| FY2025-26 | 7.7% | 2.1% | 5.25% | ≈7.03% | −5.1% | ≈94.78 | 4.4% |
GDP as first published after each year closed (see individual reviews for revisions and the 2022-23 base-year change). Nifty 50 changes are price only.
The long view
Across the six years, consumer price inflation averaged about 5.1% a year, and the repo rate moved between 4.00% and 6.50%. The rupee weakened by about 3.7% a year against the US dollar, from 75.39 to about 94.78. The Nifty 50 rose from 8,597.75 to 22,331.40, about 17.2% a year on a price basis. That figure starts from the pandemic low of March 2020, so it overstates what a typical six-year period would show.
For business owners, three patterns stand out. First, interest rates and the rupee move in long cycles that outlast any single budget, so projections should carry more than one rate and currency assumption. Second, years of strong market performance and years of strong business conditions did not always coincide. Third, the regulatory environment changed materially, with GST, labour and data-protection reforms all arriving in a short period, so compliance costs belong in the plan, not the contingency line.